Predicting the Future of Spot Production - Not So Easy
Blog post by Carey Melcher. Carey has produced TV commercials, visual effects, and some TV work for over 40 years. For 32 years, owned and executive produced for CMP, Inc.
As many of you know, Omnicom Group agreed to acquire Interpublic Group on Monday in a $13.3 billion deal that combines two of the world's largest advertising groups
So, how will this impact advertising production? I have some thoughts, and some WS folks may want to chime in with your thoughts on this news and comment as well.
Corporation Merger Results 101: With a large combined “Ad Giant,” we can expect more layoffs, and a move towards more in-house production worldwide. It is also possible if not likely that all the sub-ad companies working under this colossal umbrella will exert influence over live-action production content and other forms of their media content production such as we’ve never seen before. It feels like the job market on the agency side has been nil, at best. This merger may exacerbate that. These companies will push to save a buck or two whenever possible. These ad giants are public companies, and it’s all about their bottom line and “shareholder value.”
This merger makes it more likely even more work will be produced in house, with freelance directors and/or staff directors. Directors will always be needed. Creative collaboration with independent Directors and Production Companies has historically been the lifeblood of commercial production and created the world we’ve been living in. Going forward, there may be more production jobs at agencies and in-house agencies at brands than at traditional production companies.
A Big Topic is AI; these same ad companies will most likely bring AI production “in-house” (and why not?), just like they did with live-action over the years—decades. This is not a new trend. Believe it or not, Leo Burnett Chicago started one of the first in-house production arms in the mid-80s. Ogilvy also. Y&R as well.
The actors. What about the actors who went on strike so their AI likeness wouldn’t be used without getting paid? I believe actors will see less employment from spot production. In a few years, AI-generated people will be fantastic and believable and may replace live actors in some spots—not all, but many. Will we be seeing as well AI-generated tacos, cars and more?
TV commercials have always pushed the visual effects production envelope, and AI is the ultimate extension. Creatives will write and art-direct commercials specifically for new creative processes that make their commercials stand out. And advertisers will pay for that ’next new thing.
Another article in Monday’s WSJ's Marketing section (12/9) states that global advertising revenues should top $1 trillion in 2025, one year ahead of previous forecasts. This is an impressive number, but in these times, a trillion dollars isn’t that big. Compared to broadcast TV, Facebook, Google, Netflix, and Amazon (and the other streamers adding commercials to their platforms) may very well come out on top vis-a-vis ad dollars spending. Importantly, the spend on digital advertising is currently 10x the spend on television advertising. Will digital advertising translate into more work for traditional production companies? Let’s hope for the best.
Commercials will always be needed. They’re still the best way to reach many people, especially during live events, sports, etc. But it’s unclear how the process will evolve or what the budgets will be. A plus: Some streaming platforms are having success with the traditional commercial format.
If you’re lucky enough to still work in this industry centered around TV commercial/content/social media production five, ten, or more years from now, you may consider how good it was in 2024/2025.
As you know, this is a challenging business to make a living in. However, it is most satisfying because it is highly creative, both below and above the line, and yes, it can be fun as well—definitely not a 9 - 5 job
I wonder as well what Marshall McLuhan would think of today’s “Medium”.
